Role of early contrast enhanced CT scan in severity prediction of acute pancreatitis.

Severe pancreatitis occurs in approximately 15-25% of patients with acute pancreatitis. The objective of our study was to compare the CT Severity Index (CTSI) with a clinical score (BISAP score) to predict severity of acute pancreatitis. Forty-eight consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis who underwent contrast enhanced CT scan within 72 hours of presentation were included. Results of our study showed that both CTSI and BISAP score were reliable predictors of mortality (p value = 0.019 and <0.001 respectively) and need for mechanical ventilation (p value = .002 and .006 respectively). Positive predictive value of CTSI to predict recovery without intervention was 91.4% as compared to 78% for that of BISAP score. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curves showed CT scan was superior to BISAP Score in predicting need of percutaneous or surgical intervention. Early CT scan may be utilized for prediction of clinical course of patients with acute pancreatitis.